It was a Thursday night in late May, the multiplexes filling up the way they used to when a Star Wars title meant something at the box office. The Mandalorian and Grogu — Lucasfilm's first theatrical Star Wars release since 2019's The Rise of Skywalker — brought in $12 million during previews, according to figures reported by Deadline on Thursday.

The number puts the film in reasonable company. It comps directly to Captain America: Brave New World, Marvel's February 2025 release, which logged the same Thursday preview figure before a modest but respectable opening weekend. That is the hopeful read. The less comfortable comp is Solo: A Star Wars Story, the 2018 Han Solo origin film that outpaced this result on previews and still went on to become one of the franchise's biggest domestic disappointments.

The gap between those two reference points is essentially the entire question mark hanging over the weekend. Grogu — the scene-stealing infant alien the internet refused to stop calling Baby Yoda — has genuine cultural staying power after four seasons of the Disney+ series. Whether that affection translates to paying for a cinema ticket rather than waiting for the streaming drop is what the next 72 hours will answer.

Lucasfilm and Disney have spent several years recalibrating their Star Wars theatrical strategy after The Rise of Skywalker closed the Skywalker Saga in 2019 to mixed reception and softened ticket sales. The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first swing at resetting that theatrical track record. Full opening weekend figures are expected Sunday.