Global oil prices crossed $95 a barrel Wednesday for the first time in six weeks as hopes of a ceasefire in the Iran war collapsed following the eleventh consecutive night of U.S. strikes against Tehran.
Brent crude surged on the open as traders unwound de-escalation bets built up over the previous fortnight, according to market data reviewed by the Wail.
President Trump escalated the threat level further, warning publicly that the U.S. would strike Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran moved against commercial or military shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is the chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil supply. Any sustained disruption there would tighten global supply chains within days, energy analysts told MarketWatch.
Prices had pulled back from earlier highs in June on speculation that back-channel talks between Washington and Tehran could produce a pause in hostilities. Those talks have produced nothing, sources familiar with the negotiations told the Wail.
Fuel costs at the pump are expected to reflect the crude move within 72 hours. A further escalation, particularly any exchange of fire in the strait, would push analysts' near-term price targets above $105 a barrel.
The White House is expected to hold a national security briefing Thursday; markets will be watching for any shift in posture.