Morgan Stanley warns Hormuz closure could send Brent to $150

The Wall Street bank says a shutdown of the world's most critical oil chokepoint could drive crude prices to levels not seen since 2008 before summer ends.

Morgan Stanley has warned that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude to $150 a barrel by summer 2025.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, making it the single most important energy chokepoint on earth.
Brent crude has already been climbing as tensions in the Middle East raise fears of sustained disruption to energy shipments.
Morgan Stanley described the situation as a race against time, with markets pricing in escalating risk of a full closure.
A sustained $150 Brent price would ripple into petrol costs, transport, manufacturing, and consumer goods across the global economy.

Morgan Stanley warned this week that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive Brent crude oil to $150 a barrel before summer, a price level last seen during the 2008 commodity shock.

The bank described the situation as “a race against time,” according to a research note cited by MarketWatch, as escalating Middle East tensions put roughly 20 percent of global oil supply at risk of severe disruption.

Brent crude has already been trending upward as shipping insurers, tanker operators, and energy traders price in a growing probability of a prolonged closure. The Strait connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and carries exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, and Kuwait.

A $150 Brent price would translate directly into higher petrol costs for consumers in the UK and Europe, with knock-on effects across transport, manufacturing, and food supply chains.

Morgan Stanley has not set a specific trigger date for the $150 scenario, but the bank's analysts tied the forecast explicitly to a full closure event occurring before the end of summer 2025. Energy markets will be watching for any further escalation in the region in the weeks ahead.